Will the unthinkable happen – The Gandhi family shying away from an Amethi-Rae Bareli fight?

Will Congress declare the Gandhi siblings – Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra – as candidates from Amethi and Rae Bareli?

Unlucky no 21. If we go by Deepak Singh, a Congress leader and former legislator in Uttar Pradesh, that's the figure which caused Rahul Gandhi to lose in Amethi in 2019 Lok Sabha election.

Singh, tweeting recently, provided us with the most innovative and hopeful explanation on why Congress was going to win in Amethi this time. An astrologer purportedly told Singh that Gandhi had successfully overcome the totka (magic spell) over the number 21. In 1991, when Gandhi’s father Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated, the day was May 21. Gandhi was himself 21 years old then. In 1977, Congress lost the Amethi seat for the first time. The second defeat came 21 years later in 1998. The third time Congress lost in Amethi was in 2019, again 21 years apart from 1998. Since the ‘totka’ of the 21 was now over, Gandhi would win Amethi and emerge as the Prime Minister, Singh said.

Will Rahul, Priyanka Flee Amethi, Rae Bareli?

Full marks for creativity but it is difficult to agree with Singh’s prediction because as the election has been declared, Congress supporters are still anxiously waiting to find out if Gandhi, the face of the Congress today, will fight from Amethi again, in addition to Wayanad, from where he is MP. In 2019, Gandhi suffered an embarrassing defeat in Amethi at the hands of BJP’s Smriti Irani, despite having the support of the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party.

In fact, with Sonia Gandhi elected to the Rajya Sabha, there is also a huge question mark on who will replace her in Rae Bareli as the Congress candidate. The two constituencies have since Independence been bastions of the Nehru-Gandhi family and are bearers of the party’s long history and legacy. Most importantly, these two seats are in the critical state of UP, which has a huge say in deciding who rules over the minds and hearts of people across the country.

But this election, the future of Amethi and Rae Bareli is at stake.

The delay in declaring a candidate on these two seats has already pushed the Congress on the backfoot. However, the party can still salvage the situation if it declares the Gandhi siblings – Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra – as candidates from Amethi and Rae Bareli. They must simply put themselves on the line if they intend to leave a mark on the upcoming election. It is not about mere optics but the larger politics of the party that is at stake. Without a footing in North India, the Gandhis cannot reclaim the territory and political imagination they have lost to the Narendra Modi-led BJP over the decade.

If the Gandhi siblings decide to not contest, the result in these constituencies would mean little, as they would have already surrendered their forts to the BJP without even a skirmish. It would be a massive moral defeat; a historical blunder that may take time to reverse in case BJP wins both seats.

It would also speak volumes about the party’s leadership that Irani, a rank outsider with no caste arithmetic or history in her favour, managed to uproot Gandhi from his family’s traditional seat in a state which gave the Congress both state and national power.

The two constituencies are not ordinary seats but carry the legacy, prestige and history of the family as well as the party’s ethos. Fighting back in their own yard would send a message of confidence, resilience and loyalty to their voters while galvanising whatever remains of the party cadre in the state and across the region.

The party can learn from the experiences of others. Even during its worst phase, the Samajwadi Party could retreat to its strongholds around Saifai in Etawah. Mayawati, on the contrary, got lost in the wilderness as she failed to groom a constituency for herself. The BJP, too, under Modi and Yogi Adityanath have groomed Varanasi and Gorakhpur as ideological forts for their political messaging and philosophy of Hindutva and cultural nationalism. A leader also needs a location to deliver a message. For the Gandhis, it is not Wayanad but Amethi and Rae Bareli.

Changed Equations In Amethi, Rae Bareli

But this is not to say the going will be easy. Amethi and Rae Bareli are no longer safe seats due to changed political climate, equations and poor decision-making by the Gandhis, who have taken their supporters for granted.

The battle in Amethi and Rae Bareli has become more difficult with time, even as the Congress has been virtually wiped out in the state. In 2019, the party won just one seat in UP. In 2014, it was two – Rae Bareli and Amethi. This time, they face the realistic possibility of losing both.

Since 2019, several Congress and Opposition leaders and MLAs have defected to the saffron party. Former MP Sanjay Sinh (Amethi) and MLA Aditi Singh (Rae Bareli) made the jump after 2019 while SP MLAs Manoj Pandey (Rae Bareli) and Rakesh Pratap Singh (Amethi) rebelled in the recent Rajya Sabha election. Another SP MLA from Amethi Maharaji Prajapati is facing the heat of the Enforcement Directorate as her husband and former minister Gayatri Prajapati is in jail.

Once bastions of the Congress, Amethi and Rae Bareli are no longer safe seats. A reason for it is the emergence of the BJP but there is also an inertia that has stunted the Congress. After losing in Amethi in 2019, Rahul Gandhi abandoned it despite promising the “Amethi parivar” that he would be back often. He visited the district only a handful of times in five years. On the other hand, Irani has taken all measures to cement her connection with the constituency and its voters and recently even moved into a new house. There is a vast gap in intent and grit and of course strategy.

In the larger picture, if they are serious about starting the process of reclaiming lost political ground, it must begin in Amethi and Rae Bareli. The road to Delhi passes through UP. It is also time for Priyanka Gandhi to make her long-due electoral debut.

In 2014, Irani gave Rahul Gandhi a scare as his victory margin was reduced to just a lakh. Modi threw his weight behind Irani, calling her his sister. Despite the loss, Irani was not dismayed and continued to campaign in Amethi. And in 2019, she defeated Gandhi, although with massive help from the BJP’s resources and Modi’s appeal.

“Amethi ka MP, 2019 ka PM” was written on the walls of Amethi during the last election. This time, we must punctuate it differently and first ask, Amethi aur Rae Bareli ka candidate kaun?

Omar Rashid is an independent journalist. He writes on political and social affairs in the Hindi belt. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.