The image of Narendra Modi holding up BJP Tamil Nadu President, K Anammalai’s hand at an election rally and his twin visits to Tamil Nadu within a span of seven days are indicative of the importance of the state in BJP’s overall 370+ seats calculus for the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.
“Tamil Nadu is at the cusp of a historic political change owing to the BJP’s ‘En Mann, En Makkal’ padayatra,” PM Modi said addressing a rally in Tiruppur.
The Prime Minister went on to say that the electorate in Tamil Nadu will play a pivotal role in installing BJP government at the Centre for the third term. PM Modi's address coincided with the culmination of the padayatra.
Behind PM Modi's frequent visits to Tamil Nadu is the belief that BJP with a spirited cadre base led by K Anammalai is well positioned to better its performance in the upcoming parliamentary polls.
Revisiting BJP’s performance in Tamil Nadu
Historically, BJP has never been able to find any significant response in Tamil Nadu, even when it had started emerging as a dominant party in north India.
In 2014, BJP and its ally PMK got one seat each. Tamil Nadu saw an unprecedented landslide win for the ruling AIADMK under J. Jayalalithaa, a result which wiped DMK out of the national scene.
However, in 2019, The DMK, led by former party chief Karunanidhi’s son, Stalin, swept the elections, winning 37 of the 38 Lok Sabha seats, while the BJP drew a blank. Elections were held for 38 of the 39 Lok Sabha seats as polling was cancelled in Vellore on the EC’s orders on account of cash being used to influence votes.
The larger messaging behind PM Modi’s February 27 address
On February 27, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was all praise for AIADMK icons MG Ramachandran (MGR) and J Jayalalithaa. Speaking at a valedictory meeting of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) state president K Annamalai’s ‘En Mann En Makkal’ padayatra in Tamil Nadu's Tirupur, the Prime Minister called MGR an “incomparable leader" besides referring to Jayalalithaa’s governance as the hallmark of dedicated service to the people of the state.
Political observers believe that the comments were PM Modi's appeal to the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) vote bank while others said that it was his indirect reach-out to AIADMK, the opposition party in Tamil Nadu that was a BJP ally until September last year.
Understanding the ground reality
The BJP, which has a negligible 3 per cent vote share is grappling without any major ally after AIADMK snapped its ties.
Both Dravidian arch-rivals, the ruling DMK with the INDIA bloc and its former ally the AIADMK, are keeping the BJP at arm's length. Only GK Vasan, chief of Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC), has joined hands with the BJP.
Media reports suggest that Puthiya Thamizhagam and a few other smaller allies are mulling to switch to the DMK camp. Ousted AIADMK leaders O Panneerselvam (OPS), Sasikala, and TTV Dhinakaran, are willing to join the fold.
Behind Modi’s southern push
The PM began the year with a tour of Tamil Nadu, Lakshadweep, and Kerala on January 2-3, in which he inaugurated developmental projects worth thousands of crores.
He also took up his 11-day tour to South India where he visited several temples associated with Ramayan in the run-up to the inauguration of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya on January 22.
In his last trip to the state, the prime minister said that the BJP would win “double-digit" seats in Kerala while the neighbouring Tamil Nadu would “create history in 2024".
According to political analysts, BJP is looking to focus specifically on 84 seats in South India declared ‘weak’ category seats by the party. BJP will be banking on its cadres and state organization to win maximum seats from the region.
The number is crucial if the party has to achieve its target of 370 seats for the BJP and 400 + for the NDA, according to the analysts.
Also Read: INDIA alliance has conceded defeat, says PM Modi in Tamil Nadu rally
Will Annamalai’s,‘En Mann En Makkal Yatra’ change BJP’s fortunes in Tamil Nadu?
BJP state president K Annamalai had embarked on a six-month padayatra, titled En Mann En Makkal aiming to highlight PM Modi's achievements over the past decade while also exposing the alleged failures of successive state governments. State BJP cadres reportedly distributed over 10 lakh copies of the booklet, titled ‘What did Modi do?’ among the public during the yatra. The 1,770-km yatra covered all 39 parliamentary constituencies and 234 assembly segments of Tamil Nadu. Annamalai reportedly spoke at 100-plus street campaign meetings.
Can BJP successfully establish ‘Nationalism of Modi’ across Tamil Nadu?
Flagging-off the yatra, Home Minister Amit Shah said the aim of the yatra was to “establish the nationalism of Prime Minister Narendra Modi across Tamil Nadu”.
This yatra is not only a political Yatra; En Mann En Makkal Yatra is meant to spread the Tamil language worldwide. It is to free Tamil Nadu of dynastic politics and corruption and to improve the law-and-order situation in the state. It is meant to end corruption and start development work, observed Shah.
“Through the En Mann En Makkal Yatra, Annamalai will establish the nationalism of PM Modi across Tamil Nadu. PM Modi was the first to speak in Tamil, the world’s speak in Tamil, the world’s oldest language, in the UN,” Shah reminded the people.
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